The Syrian Conflict and Sunni Radicalism in Lebanon       Civil War Drums Beat Louder in Iraq as the U.S. policy is just hit and miss       Resolution of Anbar crisis requires security, political coordination       US and Iran offers support to stabilize Iraq       My predictions for 2014 Middle East Outlook       British government will reportedly declassify Bush-Blair talks from Iraq War run-up        70 jurnalists were killed on the job around the world in 2013       US sends missiles, drones to help Iraqis Fight With Extremists       Iraq’s Tangled Foreign Interests and Relations        Divided Iraqi leaders shirk responsibility
2013-12-31 09:15:00
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My predictions for 2014 Middle East Outlook
Washington/ UrukPress
My predictions for 2014 Middle East Outlook


My predictions for 2014 Middle East Outlook

Abdellatif Rayan

As we are about to exit the year of 2013, one of the first things to remember is that the Middle East, most immediately the civil war in  Syria, followed by the unpredictable situation in Egypt, and the Israeli- Palestinian never ending peace process enjoyed no positive marks on the U.S. foreign policy report  card.

In 2014, the turmoil will continue across the Middle East, it is the year where the abyss of open conflict between Sunnis and Shiites,  will continue to the extent the blur lines on the map are about to disappear and give way to:
The Syrian civil war is going to be worse and no breakthrough in the foreseeable future. The spill over into Lebanon, Jordan and even Turkey will be more damaging. The UN conference to be held on January 22 in Montreux, Switzerland will be just another attempt for all interested parties to showcase their agenda and will not be possible to work anything out.
 Iran will not back down from middling in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and elsewhere in Bilad El-Sham. Iran’s nuclear issue its power struggle with Saudi Arabia will dominate its international affairs with the western powers and no one should  expect an international acceptable  deal in 2014.
Israel has a big interest in the current statuesque in the Middle East and will continue to enjoy the mini internal/civil wars in the neighboring Arab countries. Israeli will continue its apartheid and colonial settlement policies in Occupied  Palestine.
For Palestinian Authority, the future of negotiating with Israel will lead to more frustration and will become more  dysfunctional authority. The dream of a Palestinian State in the West Bank and Gaza will be become no longer attainable, so the call for one state solution, or tow people one state, will start to enjoy more support.
 Saudi Arabia aging rulers will face difficulty in securing swift transfer of power. The kingdom will continue to pursue its big interest in fueling a proxy war by supporting Al Qaeda and its affiliates to fight against  Iran in  Syria, Lebanon, Bahrain, Iraq and everywhere else in the Middle East.
Qatar will have no choice but to submit to  Saud Arabia hegemony in the Arabian Peninsula and its meddling in the affairs of other Arab countries will come to its final stage by the end of the year.
Egypt’s military rulers will continue driving their country farther away from democracy and the well being  of the Egyptian masses.

In Tunisia, Libya, Iraq and Yemen, the situation will continue to be more fertile for terrorism and the rule of low will stand  no chance in those countries under the rule of dysfunctional and sectarian governments.
The Obama administration concerns with the Middle East and Iran will continue on the same pattern;  “ Don't rush. ... Just meditate, and let things take their own natural course.”
Based on the above, , the U.S.-Russian relations will continue to go hot and cold during the rest of Obama administration.